Specific military moves at the national-strategic level suggesting active preparations for a possible war in the near future began in the spring of 1996. These activities range from highly irregular and highly significant military exercises to political and international agreements.

In the Spring of 1996, Hafiz al-Assad and Saddam Hussein met secretly for a summit to ensure joint pursuit of regional objectives. The meeting took place in the area where the borders of Turkey, Iraq and Syria meet. This summit was aimed to get the endorsement and approval of both top leaders to the completion of strategic agreements reached in the course of recent high-level bilateral and tripartite high-level negotiations (Tehran is the third party). This summit created the conditions for the revival of the Eastern Front and set the specific and workable arrangements for the dispatch of Iranian expeditionary forces and weapons to the Syrian front. 

In late May 1996, Tehran demonstrated how seriously Iran takes the possibility of dispatching forces to the Israeli front. Iran conducted its largest military exercise ever -- Velayat. The essence of Velayat was a multiple corps deep offensive in the aftermath of a long range advance identical to the distance between Iran and Israel. The objective of Velayat was to confirm Iran's ability to send a strategically effective expeditionary force -- the Velayat Force -- to contribute to a regional war against high-quality armies. The primary intended objective of the exercise is Israel. The entire Iranian top leadership and high command were present at the exercise. Subsequent Iranian analysis pointed out deficiencies in the planning of the operations of a key special forces unit. These were quickly corrected and these improvements were demonstrated to the Tehran leadership in a follow-up exercise in late October.

With Iran's ability to significantly contribute to the military effort against Israel proven, Damascus and Tehran conducted high-level discussions aimed at the formulation of a joint war strategy. In mid June, Iran and Syria signed a major agreement specifically for the codification of their military cooperation against Israel. This agreement also provides for joint exercises in northern and northeastern Iran of the command elements of Syrian units and the Iranian units that will arrive to support them on the Golan front. By mid August, Iraq was brought into this framework with the establishment of a tripartite "joint command" specifically aimed to expedite the preparations for, and conduct of, "a major war against Israel". A key component of this joint command has been the coordination of the activities of Iran, Iraq, and Syria in mobilizing their SSM forces for a possible missile barrage against Israel.

In late September, the Palestinian factor was added to the joint preparations when the Palestinian Authorities (PA) entered into a major military agreement with Syria. Significantly, this agreement is between the PA, and not the PLO, and Syria, thus explicitly committing the Palestinian forces in the territories. The essence of the agreement is for the Palestinian "police" forces and other armed elements (terrorist organizations) to flare-up the Israeli interior in case of an escalation in the north. Syrian and PLO intelligence established a liaison section made up of senior Syrian and Palestinian intelligence officers with HQs in Beirut, Damascus and Gaza. In return, Syria will provide weapons and advanced training to PLO units in the refugees camps in southern Lebanon - - units disarmed as part of the Israeli-Lebanese agreements. Meanwhile, the PLO's preparations for an imminent war are evident. In Gaza, Arafat ordered the marked acceleration of the building of a personal command bunker, four stories deep. Moreover, the PLO is rapidly building all over Gaza a chain of command centers, ammunition and weapons-storage areas -- all of them underground and well fortified to even withstand Israeli bombing and shelling. The PA's security services are also accumulating large stockpiles of anti-tank and anti-aircraft weapons, including missiles, even though they are forbidden by the Oslo Accords.

In mid September, the Egyptian Armed Forces conducted their largest military exercise since the late 1970s. The 10-days Badr-96 exercise simulated a strategic deep offensive against Israel and included a large scale call-up of reserves, a major amphibious landing on the Sinai coast, a nightly assault crossing of the Suez Canal, and major breakthroughs of defensive dispositions manned by high quality forces. In mid October, senior officers of the Egyptian Army conducted a tour of the Sinai, including areas near the Israeli border, in violation of the provisions of the peace agreement with Israel. It was a commanders' tour aimed to acquaint them with the peculiarities of a theater they might have to operate in. Meanwhile, Cairo encourages the resumption of calls for war at the political level. Brig.Gen. (Ret.) Mohammed Muawad Gad al-Moula, was permitted to establish a new political party committed "to revive the 'victorious spirit' of the October 1973 War" and whose leadership is made of retired senior officers. "We have no choice but to adopt a platform for rebuilding a strong Egypt and preparing a new generation capable of fighting any attackers," al-Moula told the semi-official al-Ahram. "We have to prepare for a fresh confrontation with Israel." 

Starting early October, there have been several cycles of bilateral and multilateral political-military discussions and coordination sessions between Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Syria and Jordan. According to high-level Iranian sources, the initial phase of these consultations led to the adoption of "pan-Arab cooperation" making it possible "to impose a military blockade on Israel from the north, east, and south." In late October, senior officers from Syria, Iraq, Iran, and Lebanon held a series of meetings to coordinate and agree on a number of specific military measures and strategies for the forthcoming confrontation with Israel.

In early November, second-tier states were being brought into "the circle of confrontation" -- the group of states of committed to contributing to the Arab-Iranian war effort. Most significant was the Syrian-Pakistani military agreement signed in Islamabad by the Defense Ministers of Syria and Pakistan which arranged for the seconding of Pakistani military experts and senior officers, pilots and technicians, and key equipment to Syria. 

In late November, Damascus shared a comprehensive intelligence assessment with its Arab allies and a host of terrorist organizations. The primary objective was to warn of an impending major war between Israel and Syria with the active participation of, and support from, US forces on the side of Israel. Damascus has already concluded that "Israel is now preparing for a comprehensive war with Syria." The Syrian briefing points out to the call-up of reserves in Israel as indicative of an impending war. Special attention is paid to the military training in the Negev with US Marines. Syrian intelligence claims that "the training, objectives, and plans of these maneuvers focus on the occupied Syrian Golan and a number of positions west of Damascus." The Syrian sources are convinced that "one of these positions is a Syrian manufacturing plant for chemical weapons." 

Concerning the political-strategic situation in Damascus, the Syrian briefing is consistent in its emphasis on the immediacy of war, but seemingly self-contradictory on the sources of this war. On the one hand, the Syrian briefing states that "the Syrian leadership now believes that the military option to liberate the Golan from the Israeli Army is a legitimate Syrian option. It also believes that Syria has the right to resort to this option any time it deems appropriate." This assertion virtually confirms the Syrian intention to initiate hostilities in order to break the deadlock in the region. 

However, the section dealing with the military assessment of Syrian Intelligence emphasizes the possibility of an Israeli attack on Syria. Damascus now believes that "the Israeli Army will launch an imminent large-scale military operation against the Syrian Forces stationed adjacent to the Golan, in addition to the Syrian Forces that were relocated in Lebanon near the eastern Syrian border with Lebanon that extends to the Golan Heights." Presumably, this will be an Israeli preemptive strike given the extent of the Syrian preparations. 

The Syrian briefing leaves no doubt that even under these circumstances, Damascus will pursue its own assertive war aims, not just repel the Israeli aggression. The Syrian briefing states that "the Syrian President instructed the command of the Syrian Forces stationed near the Golan to immediately retaliate against any attack by the Israeli Army." Moreover, Assad ordered his forces to immediately launch a deep strategic strike and, toward this end, "the Syrian Army placed its SCUD missile systems at maximum alert should war break out with Israel." These SSMs, Damascus argues, "can hit any target inside Israel."

The extent of the Iranian commitment to actively supporting the Syrian war effort is of crucial importance for the highest levels of leadership in Damascus. Indeed, in late November, Syrian sources stressed that Iranian President Hashemi-Rafsanjani had just reassured President Assad in a written message that "should war break out with Israel, Iran will support Syria with the necessary military hardware in order to strengthen the Syrian military position."

Tehran takes this commitment very seriously, and, in the first week of December, dispatched Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Velayati for urgent high-level consultations. Velayati arrived in Damascus carrying yet another extremely important message from Hashemi-Rafsanjani for Assad. He then conducted extensive discussions with Assad and other senior officials on regional issues. According to the Iranian media, "the latest regional and international developments as well as further promotion of Tehran-Damascus ties were discussed in the meetings." 

Velayati's discussions with Assad and his immediate aides went far beyond that, addressing Syrian-Iranian cooperation in the imminent and possibly inevitable war. Iranian sources highlighted the discussions with Assad in which Velayati "referred to foreign pressures and the Zionist plots and underlined the need to strengthen cooperation between Iran and Syria. The Syrian President stressed this cooperation will help establishment of peace and tranquility in the whole region." Both Damascus and Tehran agree that there is going to be a lot of violence -- ranging from terrorism to war -- on the road to regional peace. 

Iranian sources report that "the Syrian President stressed the need to support the Islamic resistance in south Lebanon to confront the Zionist aggressions and to defend the Lebanese territory." Velayati and Assad also expressed support and commitment to ensuring Iraq's territorial integrity -- a precondition for Saddam Hussein's support. Velayati also reiterated the Iranian long-standing support for "the aspiration of the Palestinian nation and the Islamic resistance in their struggle against the Zionist regime." He called for "a united action by the Islamic states to foil conspiracies of enemies." Velayati assured Assad that "the Tehran-Damascus close cooperation will lead to establishment of regional peace and tranquillity." Velayati returned to Tehran carrying a most important message from Assad to Hashemi-Rafsanjani.
 

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