Israeli & Global News reviewed and presents the report as distributed to the highest levels on Capitol Hill. Although written in early December 1996, it is still very relevant. 

Congressman Jim Saxton (R-NJ) points out that the issues advanced by the TFR (Task Force Report) are especially important in view of the Clinton Administration's Middle East policy. Congressman Saxton said, "The Administration continues to apply pressure on Jerusalem to make additional concessions to Mr. Arafat while ignoring the concurrent developments in the Middle East. Instead of pressuring the democratically elected government of Israel to deviate from the policies it was elected for, the US should concentrate on helping Israel meet the growing threat of war." 

Indeed, additional intelligence information acquired since the report was originally issued only confirm and reinforce the findings and conclusions. 

In late December, once the weather suddenly improved in Israel, Syria was apprehensive about an imminent outbreak of hostilities with Israel. Most senior leaders in Damascus formally approached their counterparts in Tehran and notified them about the possibility of a war breaking out soon. An alarmed Tehran approached the uppermost circles of power in Riyadh through both official and emergency channels. The Iranians told the Saudis of the Syrian fears and informed them that Tehran would provide Syria with all possible help. Tehran wanted to forewarn Riyadh and calm in advance any fears that the Saudi Royal family might have. Tehran stressed that the anticipated massive troop and air power movements, as well as other forms of high wartime military readiness, would not be directed against the Arabian Peninsula and would be exclusively designed to assist Syria in its war with Israel. 

The Israeli defense establishment is fully aware of the gravity of the situation. In late December, Deputy Chief of Staff, Matan Vilnai, announced that the IDF's working plan for 1997 includes the possibility of a war with Syria. The IDF requested an additional emergency budget for such issues as purchase of ammunition and accelerated training of combat units. 

Another alarming factor in the strategic dynamics in the Middle East is the growing cooperation between Syria and Egypt. Since the assessment of the military intentions of states is derived from the evolution of their political posture, the recent development in Cairo's positions concerning peace with Israel means that Egypt must now be considered a potential threat. The extent of the political dimensions of the Egyptian-Syrian cooperation that prompts such an assessment was made clear by the Egyptian Ambassador to Israel, Muhammad Basyuni. Hence, perhaps the most worrisome development since the completion of the TFR is the emergence, in early January 1997, of an Egyptian strategy specifically designed to escalate any perceived problems from a region-wide crisis into a major war. President Mubarak is determined to ensure and strengthen Egypt's undisputed role as the leader of the Arab World. 

Initially, Mubarak sought international recognition for Egypt's posture by insisting on Cairo as a full partner in any "bilateral" negotiations between Israel and any Arab party. Washington and Jerusalem accepted this position. Presently, confronted with the rise of militant Islamism at home and the Islamicization process throughout the Arab World, Mubarak shifted the all-Arab policy into generating crises and building the justification for the total collapse of the "Peace Process." Indeed, a senior Egyptian official told Jordan's al-Dustur that upon studying Jerusalem's negotiating positions, Cairo concluded that Israel "already started the war." 

Last week, Egypt formally warned Israel. In an interview with the Israeli magazine HaShavua, Egyptian Ambassador to Israel, Muhammad Basyuni, threatened that if Israel does not reach an agreement with Syria the entire region will explode. Basyuni said, "I'm sure that everybody wants peace and needs peace, for if they [Israelis] do not sign on [a recommitment to the Israeli/Arab accords] for peace, then, and I don't threaten — but it will be bad." 

Basyuni stressed that Cairo does not care about the changes of Israeli governments nor their policies, and insisted on Israeli adherence to the policies of the previous Labor government. Significantly, he repeatedly conditioned a continuance of the Israeli-Egyptian peace agreement on Jerusalem accepting the Syrian and Arafat negotiating positions. Basyuni said, "The [peace] agreement between Israel and Egypt will break if Israel does not sign [an agreement] with Syria." He stressed that the Egyptian-Israeli peace is valid only within the context of Egypt's leadership of the Arab world. He said, "The [peace] agreement signed with Egypt is conditioned on an overall peace agreement with all Arab countries. The agreement with us will break if Israel does not sign [agreements] with Syria and the other Arab states." Basyuni said, " I want it to be clear that when Egypt signed the peace agreement with Israel, the agreement is conditioned on a comprehensive agreement with all Arab states." Basyuni explained, "We believe that a partial peace agreement with one Arab country or another is a fragile and unstable agreement. True, you [Israel] signed [peace agreements] with Egypt and Jordan, but this will not be sufficient until a peace agreement is signed with all Arab states, and this includes Syria." Basyuni stressed that "even Jordan, like Egypt, is an integral part of the Arab states [World], and it will never agree to remain the sole ally of Israel." 

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