The question of whether Israeli concessions is a positive step to further peace in the Middle East, or whether it only exacerbates existing conditions¹ that will eventually lead to a regional war is answered by an important report of Congressman Jim Saxton (R-NJ), Chairman, of the Task Force on Terrorism and Unconventional Warfare, U.S. House of Representatives, entitled: "APPROACHING THE NEW CYCLE OF ARAB-ISRAELI FIGHTING." 

The report is a detailed analysis leading to the conclusion that Israel will most likely be the focus of an unified effort by combined Islamic forces to destroy Israel². 

The report highlights a majority opinion in the Middle East that states, "'The question is no longer: Will the expected and planned war between Israel and Syria ever break out? It is rather: When will the war break out?'" 

Militant Islam is seen as the motivating factor threatening Israel's survival and to a lesser degree the United States. 

Other factors influencing Arab intransigence are that the leaders of Iran, Syria, and Iraq, are determined to use the doctrine of primogeniture as a methodology to ensure hereditary rights transferal to family. 

U.S. interests are at risk in Saudi Arabia as power is transferred to the Abdallah faction. Prince Abdallah is perceived as an ally of Syrian influence that is considered vital to Prince Abdallah's rise to power. 

Prince Abdallah is determined to seize power through the ejection of the U.S. from the area as a solution to Saudi Arabia's cash flow dilemma and by establishing more lucrative relations with East Asia. 

The report says that these "relations have already initiated the bombing in Dahran." And that prince Abdallah promised Syria to launch a massive oil embargo against the West in the event of a major crisis with Israel.

Iran, Syria, and Iraq, are shown as plotting a unified strategy in pursuit of regional objectives. This cooperation was reached at the highest levels and establishes "arrangements" for the "dispatch of Iranian expeditionary forces and weapons to the Syrian front." 

Specific strategic goals are delineated and military operations launched to simulate attacks on Israel. Both Iran and Egypt are recorded as attempting to hone crack units with simulated attacks. Iran with their Velayat operation and Egypt with their Badr-96 offensive. Both are clearly in preparation for a final offensive against Israel. 

Syria is portrayed as preparing for a major war in which Syria is a victim. Syria expects a pre-emptive attack from Israel in response to Syrian provocations, either directly or through its epigone Lebanon who will join any military adventurism. 
Planned Syrian provocations are discussed in detail as their intent is to force an Israeli retaliation against terrorists in South Lebanon, resulting in planned Syrian deaths that would create the excuse for Syrian retaliation.

Both Iran and Syria stress the cooperation between the two countries and Iran's support for any Syrian militarism against Israel. 

A detailed list of Iranian arms delivered to Damascus are given. The weapons are sophisticated and lethal. Many are delivered not only to HizbAllah but to PLO units stationed in refugees camps in South West Lebanon. 

The Palestinians are part of the calculus and their forces are committed to assist in the event of any crisis in the North. It is the Palestinian Authority and not the PLO making the commitment, which assures the use of Palestinian "police" forces along with other terrorist groups. Also involved are PLO intelligence and Syria intelligence joining forces and creating a liaison section composed of senior Syrian and Palestinian officers with headquarters in Beirut, Damascus, and Gaza.

Mention is made of the PLO preparations for war as they continue to accelerate their construction of concrete bunkers to be used for command centers, ammunition, and weapons storage. All part of the coordinated plan. 

Other portions of the plan include a nuclear option using existing nuclear weapons possessed by Iran and Pakistan. The nuclear philosophy is simple; if used, the Muslims can absorb a nuclear strike while Israel cannot. This, in effect, neutralizes Israel's nuclear capability and with a broad brush stroke also neutralizes the United States as a participant due to anticipated U.S. reluctance to commit troops to an area that may be subjected to biological and/or nuclear weapons. The scenarios to use these weapons are well developed. 

As explained, Syria's plans are to force a response from Israel that will allow Syria to attack in force. The report details one scenario in which Syria will launch a barrage of surface to surface missiles (SSMs) against Israel and Israeli key military facilities. Then a joint attack will be initiated with Palestinians in South Lebanon along with the Palestinian Authority's 50,000 man "police" force, in conjunction with "auxillary" forces, to launch a massive intifada and waves of terrorism. 

Syria expects to reach its objectives on the Golan, and Israel is expected to succumb to anticipated world pressure to accept new Syrian positions. This scenario is of course possible if Muslim assessments of Israeli strengths and weaknesses are accurate. The report is clear in its understanding that Muslim leaders feel Israel's military strength is declining, "collapsing from within," and presents them with the opportunity to "resolve the Zionist menace once and for good." The conclusion is that while there is no hard evidence as to date of armed conflict, the Muslim elite await the "spark" that will "'compel' them into taking action."
 
 

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